Falling Kerry

[monk222]

~
"The coming weeks will be so tough because the essential contest - of which the Swift boat stuff was only a start - will be over who really has courage, who really has resolve, and who is just a fraud with a manly bearing."

-- David Brooks for The NY Times

Here is one of the harsher ways of putting the election contest in a nutshell, and capturing what seems to be the momentum.

Just negativity? Even now, a friend insists Kerry is still ahead. Yet, our Electoral Vote Predictor, which is maintained by a pro-Kerry person, now shows Bush actually ahead: 280 - 242.

But, yes, it is reasonable to expect swings, and this is the big week for the Republicans and their convention. The real campaign season and debates lie ahead. Yet, one does feel some doubt about ever seeing that Kerry resurgence...

Comments

[beentothemoon.livejournal.com]

Okay, here's what I think. If Bush replaces Cheney with McCain, he'll win hands down after a big surge, then a small backlash then a medium surge. If Bush dances with the one who brung him, it's a little more up in the air and it may come down to what Kerry does and the weather. If Kerry drops whatshisname, the smiling one, for Hilary there will be a big face-painting dirty hippie surge and a huge backlash and will lose big time.

[queensugar.livejournal.com]

Perhaps I'll be proven wrong, but I don't think either candidate will replace their VP pick. I don't think it's possible for Kerry to do it at this point, though I could be wrong, and despite speculation, Hillary is not really in question for VP pick this year.

[beentothemoon.livejournal.com]

I don't think so either. Edwards would have to drop out, and I don't think they would want to lose Cheney's "street cred" among hardline conservatives.

[queensugar.livejournal.com]

Exactly. And despite the fact that people don't seem to like Cheney much, it would look bad switching horses in the middle of the race as the saying goes.

[hardblue.livejournal.com]

In other words, the race is just likely to go all over the place with a lot of silliness, like always! Point well taken, heh.

[queensugar.livejournal.com]

What I don't get is WHY you feel that doubt. There's nothing to suggest there WON'T be a resurgence. In fact, there's NO WAY TO KNOW.

You doubt too quickly. I'm as cynical as it gets and even I manage to keep from leaping off the cliffs of despair every five minutes.

[hardblue.livejournal.com]

I tend to get taken into the dominant mood - a little suggestible. For instance, when Clinton was about to undergo the impeachment trial, when I would watch him in the news, I had the eerie feeling that I was watching a goner, that not only would he be impeached but he would be removed from office. There was a certain conviction inside, with all the talk of felony perjury and people talking about his risk. In another kind of example, if I see a story about, say, a new kind of nervous ailment, I'll start thinking, "OMG, I might have that! I feel lethargic, my limbs do feel a little shaky, and I do feel a little feverish often." That kind of thing... And I'm a bit panicky.

[queensugar.livejournal.com]

A sort of depressive anxiety disorder then, is it? Your mind subconsciously deals with the anxiety by giving into the fear?

[hardblue.livejournal.com]

I don't know if it's something that would warrent any official diagnosis - just a suggestibility.

[queensugar.livejournal.com]

Monk, if I know anything about psychology, it's that pretty much everything warrants a diagnosis these days, especially when it comes to mood disorders.

[hardblue.livejournal.com]

Let's not practice medicine without a license! ;)

Especially over the Internet.

[queensugar.livejournal.com]

It's not technically medicine. You're thinking of psychiatry. I'm not prescribing anything.

[queensugar.livejournal.com]

Yeesh. And in case we forgot who we were dealing with...

"Polls have become marketing tools for the candidates. According to www.race2004.net "during the 2000 primary race Karl Rove had pollsters call Republican voters in South Carolina asking if John McCain's black baby born out outside of his marriage influenced their decision on whether to support him. The question was not only racist, it was misleading. McCain and his wife adopted a baby from Bangladesh. The child isn't black in the "traditional" sense, and the baby was born outside his marriage because he was adopted."

Interestingly, this site posts different numbers.

http://www.race2004.net/

[hardblue.livejournal.com]

Heh, I believe the term of art for those kind of polls is "push polling." Not all polls are equally meaningless, of course. Though, I happily take the point that all polls and projections today cannot tell us what the actual results will be two months from now, especially with those debates, and who knows what else that may happen.

Thanks for the site! I think I'll check with both. Though, just as that earlier one is run by a pro-Kerry person, so this one seems even more so:

'In the interest of full disclosure, I am a liberal Democrat who listens to Air America and usually votes for the most pro-gay Democrat on the ballot. I try not let my biases affect this site's analysis though, as I want our conclusions to be as accurate as possible."

CNN isn't Fox News, and they still give Bush a ten point edge. But I'm with you, babe, it's close, and it's all up in the air still.

[queensugar.livejournal.com]

Oh, yeah, it IS run by a pro-Kerry person. But methinks it affects less the numbers than the commentary beneath, and especially since both use polls from GOP sources.

I'm aware not all polls are as bad. But that McCain thing is pretty horrific.

[antilapsarian.livejournal.com]

Not to pick on that particular Electoral Vote predictor, but they still list Ohio as Weak Bush when actually The Dispatch just published a poll showing a dead even tie and the U. of Cincy puts Kerry several points ahead.

As far as the "manly" types the Republicans are parading around, I think they are misunderestimating why the middle is going 2-1 for Kerry. As the MSNBC guy said last night, Arnold's speech was good but where is the fire we expected to see in all this? The GOP is losing the Election at the time they need to be kicking off a huge boost...the voters still to be won over do not care a darn about Arnold or McCain or Rudy. Or Kerry's Vietnam experience for that matter. His analysis was: they've seen Bush for 4 years, are not happy, and want to see if he offers anything different or worthwhile before they firmly decide Kerry. Bush has a lot of work and it is gonna be difficult.

[hardblue.livejournal.com]

Since you live in Ohio, I'm really reluctant to question you on where your state lies, but even the site Melissa gives above shows Ohio to be a weak Bush state - and both sites are maintained by Kerry people.

I'm willing to accept that this race is still something of a dead heat, but I cannot believe that Kerry is winning, and certainly not by the kind of lead you suggest. I think Kerry better keep working hard!

[antilapsarian.livejournal.com]

The Cincy poll was last week and was the more major, The Dispatch poll just came out on Sunday...so neither may be updated "in the system" yet for these trackers. Same with the perceived Kerry decline thanks to the Swift Boaters. I think the negative reaction to the negative ads is yet to show and will show up around the same time as the GOP "bounce" from the convention. Meaning we're gonna be looking at the same numbers for awhile. LOL

As I've said, I think the assumption that Kerry isn't winning is largely the media that wants a tight race for ratings. I think if Bush works hard it can be close in November, but the task is on him to win and it is Kerry's election to lose. Both are hardly going to give anything less than their all, but Bush's odds are just incredible. No President has ever had his numbers and been re-elected. Not one.