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~
Well, it looks like![[livejournal.com profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/external/lj-userinfo.gif)
antilapsarian is right, after all. Kerry is leading in the electoral vote. Going by the news and discussions in the general media and TV, Monk had the gloomy impression that Kerry was really lagging, and that Bush was going into the fall campaign in a strong position, and likely to win in November.
This Electoral Vote Predictor is neat. Monk may put the link on his userinfo page. He came across it in one of the Debater's journals. As of now Kerry leads handsomely:
Bush 211
Kerry 327
___ ___ ___
(EDIT: 1545)
Looking deeper into the Electoral Predictor site, one sees that it does need to be taken with a grain of salt:
"I am a Kerry supporter. I am open about that. Despite my political preference, I have bent over backwards to be scrupulously honest about all the numbers, and have carefully designed the main page to be strictly nonpartisan."
Monk will still rely on it, even if only for his personal use. On a somewhat humorous note, the maintainer cites a competitor for contrast:
"If you want an election site that has a pro-Bush bias from beginning to end, including all over the main page, try www.electionprojection.com " heh...
.
Well, it looks like
antilapsarian is right, after all. Kerry is leading in the electoral vote. Going by the news and discussions in the general media and TV, Monk had the gloomy impression that Kerry was really lagging, and that Bush was going into the fall campaign in a strong position, and likely to win in November.This Electoral Vote Predictor is neat. Monk may put the link on his userinfo page. He came across it in one of the Debater's journals. As of now Kerry leads handsomely:
Kerry 327
___ ___ ___
(EDIT: 1545)
Looking deeper into the Electoral Predictor site, one sees that it does need to be taken with a grain of salt:
"I am a Kerry supporter. I am open about that. Despite my political preference, I have bent over backwards to be scrupulously honest about all the numbers, and have carefully designed the main page to be strictly nonpartisan."
Monk will still rely on it, even if only for his personal use. On a somewhat humorous note, the maintainer cites a competitor for contrast:
"If you want an election site that has a pro-Bush bias from beginning to end, including all over the main page, try www.electionprojection.com " heh...
.
![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png){kind=small}
no subject
Date: 2004-08-17 08:54 am (UTC)From:Thanks for the link. And you doubted me...shame on you, Monk! LOL I'm very surprised at the number of Kerry bumper stickers that have surfaced in Ohio. It's nice to see.
no subject
Date: 2004-08-17 10:45 am (UTC)From:And what can I say about doubting you? I tend to need to see it myself. I also need to read more deeply at the site, seeing if there might be a more questionable reason why that lead is so big...
no subject
Date: 2004-08-17 11:18 am (UTC)From:What else is nice is the upswing in Kerry-Edwards stickers...not the Kerry or Kerry for Truth/A Change, etc.. But honest to God people who have gone to get the official Kerry-Edwards meaning they have gotten involved in the last month or so. Nice.
no subject
Date: 2004-08-17 11:32 am (UTC)From:Here's a nice example! (http://www.livejournal.com/community/show_your_boobs/1854338.html#cutid1)
no subject
Date: 2004-08-17 12:34 pm (UTC)From:no subject
Date: 2004-08-17 09:52 am (UTC)From:that makes me feel so much better
i just woke up from a dream that Bush won.
my mom said "BUSH"
and my heart sunk
and music came in that meant the end of the world
....its sad but i'm not kidding that was my dream
lol
whatever.
all these polls are making me nervous
i just want november.
no subject
Date: 2004-08-17 10:47 am (UTC)From:I hope you can sleep better now...
no subject
Date: 2004-08-17 12:19 pm (UTC)From:no subject
Date: 2004-08-17 11:48 am (UTC)From:It's still too early to judge anything. But if Kerry keeps his game up against the Bush team, he has a good shot... the plus side is that every poll shows that Kerry voters are by and large far more sure that their vote will NOT be changing.
Nothing is a done deal and I think any pundit would be an idiot to place bets now, with so much ground left to cover. But the interesting thing is that the Bush camp has slung SO MUCH at Kerry, and they're still incredibly weak as far as incumbents go... I mean, they had pulled their attack ads for the expressed purpose that they were not accomplishing anything poll wise.
no subject
Date: 2004-08-17 12:09 pm (UTC)From:Bush 134
Kerry 149
Very shiftable stuff! You are doubtlessly right that pundits wouldn't bet big at this point, especially when the fall can be full of the greatest and most terrible surprises.
By the way, I thought you might like this Fareed Zakaria column. (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A6678-2004Aug16.html)
It deals with the wisdom of going into Iraq knowing as we do now that Saddam wasn't an imminent threat. The key passage may be this:
'Was toppling Hussein's regime a worthwhile objective? Bush's answer is yes; Howard Dean's is no. Kerry's answer is that it was a worthwhile objective but was disastrously executed. For this "nuance" Kerry has been attacked from both the right and the left. But it happens to be the most defensible position on the subject.'
no subject
Date: 2004-08-17 12:22 pm (UTC)From:The real battle now isn't for the "Leaning Kerry" states, it's for the real toss-ups, and there are plenty few to go around.
no subject
Date: 2004-08-17 12:54 pm (UTC)From:no subject
Date: 2004-08-17 01:38 pm (UTC)From:ANYBODY BUT BUSH