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An interesting strategic calculation on the likelihood of an Israeli attack on Iran.
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If the Israelis really are intent on attacking the Iranian nuclear facilities, they’re likely to do so before this November’s American presidential elections. If they started an attack and needed U.S. firepower to help them complete the task, Barack Obama might open himself up to perilous political attacks—for being indecisive, weak, appeasing, anti-Israel, you name it—if he didn’t follow through. It could cost him the votes of crucial constituencies. If the Israelis tried to pressure the United States into joining an attack after the election, Obama would have (to borrow a phrase from another context) more flexibility. So, to the extent the Israeli leaders have decided to attack (and it’s not at all clear they have), they are probably thinking: much better sooner than later.
-- Fred Kaplan
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I don't know if Obama is that predictable, though. I imagine that the Israelis will want to be prepared to have to follow through without assistance, leaving themselves vulnerable only to a mass war of retaliation by a number of Muslim powers, in which case, Obama should be expected to intervene. Though, if things go that route, who knows how the dominoes may fall? Might the Russians then step in? We are getting ahead of ourselves, but once the bombs starts falling, things can get extreme fast.
_ _ _
If the Israelis really are intent on attacking the Iranian nuclear facilities, they’re likely to do so before this November’s American presidential elections. If they started an attack and needed U.S. firepower to help them complete the task, Barack Obama might open himself up to perilous political attacks—for being indecisive, weak, appeasing, anti-Israel, you name it—if he didn’t follow through. It could cost him the votes of crucial constituencies. If the Israelis tried to pressure the United States into joining an attack after the election, Obama would have (to borrow a phrase from another context) more flexibility. So, to the extent the Israeli leaders have decided to attack (and it’s not at all clear they have), they are probably thinking: much better sooner than later.
-- Fred Kaplan
_ _ _
I don't know if Obama is that predictable, though. I imagine that the Israelis will want to be prepared to have to follow through without assistance, leaving themselves vulnerable only to a mass war of retaliation by a number of Muslim powers, in which case, Obama should be expected to intervene. Though, if things go that route, who knows how the dominoes may fall? Might the Russians then step in? We are getting ahead of ourselves, but once the bombs starts falling, things can get extreme fast.
