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Scott Adams on Econmics
Scott Adams lays down some more uncommonly common wisdom, this time on economics, coming up with the Lawyers-to-Engineers ratio. Though, of course, when you have an advanced economy, you can just get foreign engineers to emigrate, and Americans can study law, Shakespeare, or even draw comics.
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For any given ten-year period, luck is the biggest driver of a nation's economy. But what single factor is most predictive of, say, a nation's fifty-year economic direction? I think it's the L-to-E ratio (lawyers-to-engineers).
My hypothesis is that the best indicator of long term economic health is the number of engineers a country produces relative to the number of lawyers. A country that is cranking out more engineers than lawyers will trend up. A country that is moving toward a lawyer-heavy economy will grind to a stop.
This idea is nothing more than a wordy way of saying, "To a man who only has a hammer, everything looks like a nail." Engineers build stuff and lawyers sue people. If we assume both professions like to stay busy all the time, you need more engineers than lawyers to create net growth. And I think you'd agree that the countries with the best engineers also win wars and survive disasters the best.
I tried and failed to Google some statistics to back up my hypothesis. Anecdotally, the idea seems about right. I can't think of a country with a strong economy that isn't also known for its engineering prowess.
Some of you will argue that education in general is the biggest predictor of success. But I think you'd agree that if everyone started majoring in English, we'd all starve to death with impeccable grammar.
-- Scott Adams
_ _ _
For any given ten-year period, luck is the biggest driver of a nation's economy. But what single factor is most predictive of, say, a nation's fifty-year economic direction? I think it's the L-to-E ratio (lawyers-to-engineers).
My hypothesis is that the best indicator of long term economic health is the number of engineers a country produces relative to the number of lawyers. A country that is cranking out more engineers than lawyers will trend up. A country that is moving toward a lawyer-heavy economy will grind to a stop.
This idea is nothing more than a wordy way of saying, "To a man who only has a hammer, everything looks like a nail." Engineers build stuff and lawyers sue people. If we assume both professions like to stay busy all the time, you need more engineers than lawyers to create net growth. And I think you'd agree that the countries with the best engineers also win wars and survive disasters the best.
I tried and failed to Google some statistics to back up my hypothesis. Anecdotally, the idea seems about right. I can't think of a country with a strong economy that isn't also known for its engineering prowess.
Some of you will argue that education in general is the biggest predictor of success. But I think you'd agree that if everyone started majoring in English, we'd all starve to death with impeccable grammar.
-- Scott Adams