Staying the President's Course

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The The O'Hanlon and Pollack op-ed has erupted in tremors in the blogosphere and in Washington:

Putnam said the op-ed was more significant than recent GOP defections on Iraq. "It has shifted momentum going into August recess," he said. "It transforms the debate from purely political calculations of how many votes to prevent a defunding of the war … into an intellectual discussion about whether the surge is working."

This Politico.com article lays out the odds against any withdrawal of troops in the near term, speaking of forces that the op-ed only reinforces. In the end, the president obviously has the key strategic position when it comes to war and the troops. More than that, President Bush maintains support from enough Republicans to keep Congress from forcing his hands:

"At the end of the day, all of this hand-wringing needs to be understood (in the context) of how Congress works: There will always be 33 of us [to uphold a presidential veto], as long as there is not a complete meltdown, to support a military strategy that is aggressive and is not based on needs of the next election," said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.).

Furthermore, as far as the prospect of voters forcing Republican hands, it is noted that conservative voters are continuing to support the president's Iraq moves:

The only way Republicans will force the war's end is if voters -- especially conservative ones -- demand it. That is not happening as quickly or as forcefully as many Republicans anticipated a year ago. Polls show a majority of GOP voters still generally back the war.

What happens over this month of August is understood to be critical. In addition to possible changes on the ground, some new data could be influential. In response to the O'Hanlon and Pollack piece, George Packer is going on his own fact-finding tour.

Mr. Packer wrote "The Assassins' Gate" and we read and blogged that book. As I recall, he was neither adamantly anti-war nor a wide-eyed neo-con hawk. I would be very impressed by what he has to say.

xXx

Staying the President's Course

♠
The The O'Hanlon and Pollack op-ed has erupted in tremors in the blogosphere and in Washington:

Putnam said the op-ed was more significant than recent GOP defections on Iraq. "It has shifted momentum going into August recess," he said. "It transforms the debate from purely political calculations of how many votes to prevent a defunding of the war … into an intellectual discussion about whether the surge is working."

This Politico.com article lays out the odds against any withdrawal of troops in the near term, speaking of forces that the op-ed only reinforces. In the end, the president obviously has the key strategic position when it comes to war and the troops. More than that, President Bush maintains support from enough Republicans to keep Congress from forcing his hands:

"At the end of the day, all of this hand-wringing needs to be understood (in the context) of how Congress works: There will always be 33 of us [to uphold a presidential veto], as long as there is not a complete meltdown, to support a military strategy that is aggressive and is not based on needs of the next election," said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.).

Furthermore, as far as the prospect of voters forcing Republican hands, it is noted that conservative voters are continuing to support the president's Iraq moves:

The only way Republicans will force the war's end is if voters -- especially conservative ones -- demand it. That is not happening as quickly or as forcefully as many Republicans anticipated a year ago. Polls show a majority of GOP voters still generally back the war.

What happens over this month of August is understood to be critical. In addition to possible changes on the ground, some new data could be influential. In response to the O'Hanlon and Pollack piece, George Packer is going on his own fact-finding tour.

Mr. Packer wrote "The Assassins' Gate" and we read and blogged that book. As I recall, he was neither adamantly anti-war nor a wide-eyed neo-con hawk. I would be very impressed by what he has to say.

xXx